Macadamia kernels, Kenya
Kenyan macadamia is arriving in volume, and cheaper
EU imports of shelled macadamia from Kenya reached 1,548 tonnes from January to July 2026, +83% on the same months of 2025. Value per kilogram fell 11%, from €11.60 to €10.34.
Show the numbers
| Month | 2025 (t) | 2025 (€/kg) | 2026 (t) | 2026 (€/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 24.7 | €11.95 | 394.0 | €10.19 |
| Feb | 54.8 | €11.69 | 167.1 | €10.94 |
| Mar | 62.4 | €11.90 | 128.0 | €9.90 |
| Apr | 59.9 | €11.68 | 159.9 | €10.01 |
| May | 137.6 | €11.36 | 152.3 | €9.96 |
| Jun | 193.8 | €11.79 | 112.4 | €11.28 |
| Jul | 310.4 | €11.46 | 433.8 | €10.40 |
January 2026 stands out: almost 400 tonnes, sixteen times January 2025. Kenya's crop authority halted macadamia harvesting and trading from 1 December 2025 to 15 February 2026 (Business Daily), so exporters shipped before the halt and those goods reached Europe in January. In 2025 most volume arrived from August to November: plan sample requests before then.
Kenya South Africa All other origins
In 2025 Kenyan kernels averaged €11.09 per kilogram, against €12.07 for South Africa. Customs data puts all shelled kernels in one code, so this mixes wholes, halves and pieces. Part of Kenya's discount may be product mix rather than quality.
For buyers
Kenya can supply more, at a discount to South Africa. Ask every lot for its style breakdown and an aflatoxin result.
For exporters
Documented wholes-and-halves ratios are the strongest argument for closing the price gap.
Specialty green coffee, Kenya
Kenya's coffee premium has almost disappeared
In 2021 Kenyan green coffee entered the EU at 2.07 times the average value per kilogram. In 2025 it was 1.10 times. Kenya did not get cheaper; the rest of the market caught up.
Show the numbers
| Year | Kenya | Ethiopia | EU average | Kenya ÷ average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | €4.83 | €3.38 | €2.33 | 2.07× |
| 2022 | €6.34 | €4.97 | €3.75 | 1.69× |
| 2023 | €4.29 | €4.60 | €3.37 | 1.27× |
| 2024 | €4.94 | €4.66 | €4.09 | 1.21× |
| 2025 | €6.55 | €6.16 | €5.94 | 1.10× |
The EU average includes cheaper robusta, so Ethiopia, another washed-arabica origin, is the fairer comparison. There too, Kenya's lead fell, from 1.43× to 1.06×.
This year, EU imports from Kenya from January to July were 13,541 tonnes, −28% on 2025, at a steady €6.70 per kg. World prices are easing: the International Coffee Organization's composite indicator averaged 262.18 US cents per pound in September 2026, −8.7% on the month before.
For buyers
Kenyan specialty lots now cost little more than the market average, which has rarely been true. Compare offers again.
For exporters
The premium now has to be earned lot by lot: cup scores, traceability and an EUDR file that competitors cannot show.
Mango, Ghana
Ghana's mango exports are small, fast-growing and premium-priced
Ghana shipped 4,875 tonnes to the EU in 2025, +79% on 2024 and 3.2 times 2021. Each kilogram was worth 3.2 times the average.
Show the numbers
| Year | Ghana (t) | Ghana (€/kg) | All origins (t) | All origins (€/kg) | Ghana's share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,526 | €7.60 | 409,381 | €1.41 | 0.4% |
| 2022 | 2,461 | €4.53 | 387,879 | €1.52 | 0.6% |
| 2023 | 2,467 | €5.93 | 394,893 | €1.55 | 0.6% |
| 2024 | 2,727 | €6.30 | 356,140 | €1.87 | 0.8% |
| 2025 | 4,875 | €5.49 | 444,594 | €1.72 | 1.1% |
For buyers
Ask each Ghanaian supplier for its dried and fresh split, drying method, and recent residue and sulphite results.
For exporters
A one-page sheet with variety, drying method, certifications and lab results makes your product easy to choose.
Border checks and deforestation rules
All three corridors are clear, with one deadline
Macadamia, mango and coffee from Ghana and Kenya are not on the EU list of foods under increased border checks. Neighbouring products are.
| Origin | Product | Hazard | Consignments checked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana | Groundnuts and groundnut products | Aflatoxins | 50% |
| Ghana | Palm oil | Sudan dyes | 50% |
| Egypt | Mango | Pesticide residues | 20% |
| Kenya | Chilli peppers (not sweet) | Pesticide residues | 20% |
| Kenya | Fresh beans | Pesticide residues | 10% |
Aflatoxin is the main risk for any nut, and Ghana's groundnut entry shows how one product's record can put a whole origin under 50% checks. The Commission reviews the list at least every six months; the last two changes applied from 18 February and 30 June 2026, so the next is likely around the turn of the year.
79days
until the EU deforestation rules apply to coffee
From 30 December 2026, large and medium operators placing coffee on the EU market must show the geolocation of the plots where it was grown. Some smaller operators have until 30 June 2027. Most Kenyan coffee comes from smallholders selling through cooperatives, so collecting plot data takes time. Switzerland is not bound by the regulation, but Swiss traders who sell into the EU will be asked for the same data.
What to do this month
Buyers in Switzerland and the Netherlands
- Ask every Kenyan coffee supplier for plot geolocation data now, not in December.
- Compare Kenyan specialty offers again: the import-level premium of 2021 is gone.
- Request Kenyan macadamia samples before the August-to-November peak, with style breakdown and aflatoxin results.
- Ask Ghanaian mango suppliers for their dried and fresh split, drying method and residue results.
Exporters in Ghana and Kenya
- Keep a lab aflatoxin result for every lot of nuts.
- Build EUDR files per cooperative or estate before buyers ask.
- Document your wholes-and-halves ratio by lot.
- Prepare a one-page product sheet with lab results and certifications.
Turn these into a checklist for your product and destination with the Compliance Navigator.
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Sources and method
- Trade figures: Eurostat Comext, dataset DS-045409, EU-27 imports from outside the EU, last updated 15 September 2026, extracted 12 October 2026. Codes 0802 62 00 (shelled macadamia), 0804 50 00 (guavas, mangoes and mangosteens, fresh or dried), 0901 11 00 (coffee, not roasted, not decaffeinated).
- Value per kilogram is customs value divided by net mass at the EU border: a price signal, not a transaction price. Shares, ratios and changes are calculated by SokoNexus from the Eurostat values, and checked by automated tests.
- Kenya's macadamia closed season: Business Daily, 11 November 2025. Border checks: Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1206. EUDR dates: EU Access2Markets notice of 28 January 2026. Coffee prices: International Coffee Organization.
- Swiss import data is not included while SokoNexus requests permission for commercial use.
Market information, not legal, financial or investment advice. Check requirements with the competent authority before shipping.